Relationship Priors
In relationships, ambiguous behavior is filtered through accumulated expectations. The same missed action can become evidence of neglect or an ordinary consequence of a busy day, depending on the prior history of trust.
She fails to do one expected thing. To one person, that omission says, “You never care.” To another, the identical omission says, “Probably a busy day.” The action has not changed; the relationship’s prior has.
E1History supplies the missing meaning
An ambiguous act does not arrive with its interpretation attached. You combine what happened now with what you have learned to expect from this person. A history of reliability makes a generous explanation feel plausible; accumulated disappointment makes neglect feel likely. That prior changes how much weight you give the latest incident—and therefore whether you respond with curiosity, blame, or reassurance. This is why trust affects more than goodwill: it shapes the meaning assigned to incomplete evidence.
E1A prior is evidence, not a verdict
Generous priors should not erase repeated neglect, and suspicious priors should not turn every omission into proof. The model applies when the present action is genuinely ambiguous; clear patterns and direct evidence deserve more weight than the story history makes easiest to tell.
E1Separate the omission from its interpretation
The next time a partner, friend, or colleague misses something expected, write down the bare event and the meaning you immediately assigned to it. Then ask for the missing circumstance directly—“What happened today?”—before treating your prior as the explanation.
Episodes that teach this
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From Instinct to Insight - How Do We Really Decide? Bayesian Thinking - Future IQ
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If she has not done something, it can mean "you never care" or "maybe busy day" depending on the prior.