Causal Mechanism
A causal claim needs a plausible sequence showing how one thing changes another. Without that mechanism, the same correlation can accommodate incompatible explanations.
Two things can move together perfectly and still leave the central question unanswered: what physically, socially, or psychologically carried the effect from one to the other? Until you can describe that sequence, you have an association—not an explanation.
E1The missing chain between cause and effect
A mechanism supplies the intermediate links in a causal claim: one event alters some condition, that altered condition triggers the next change, and the chain eventually produces the observed outcome. Naming those links makes the story testable. Each step creates questions: Did the proposed change occur? Could it produce the next step? Does the timing fit?
Without that chain, an observed pattern remains compatible with reverse causation, a shared third cause, or coincidence. This is why Correlation vs Causation is not merely a statistical warning. It is a demand for an account of how the alleged cause does its work.
E1Plausible is not proven
A coherent mechanism strengthens a causal claim, but coherence alone cannot establish it: several plausible chains may explain the same pattern. The mechanism must still face evidence capable of distinguishing its sequence from rival explanations.
E1Write the arrows
Tomorrow, when you encounter “X causes Y,” rewrite it as a chain: X changes A; A changes B; B produces Y. Then identify the weakest arrow and ask what observation would show that step actually occurs. If you cannot write the chain, treat the claim as a hypothesis rather than a conclusion.
E1Episodes that teach this
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The Great LIE - Correlation is Not Causation - FutureIQ
· explained at 14:30
7,309 views
"you have to give the sequence of cause and effect, a mechanism"